Deman Model Medical Cannabis

With the "Cannabis as Medicines" (March 10, 2017) Act Germany opened the market for the use of cannabis for therapeutic purposes. We at PIVOT have developed four scenarios that vividly show that the planned domestic cultivation cannot keep up with the rapidly growing demand in Germany. If Germany does not want to become import-dependent on European and non-EU countries, a forward-looking expansion and following regulation of medical cannabis cultivation in Germany is urgently needed.

Overview of Scenarios

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  • Purpose: To analyse the impact of the Cannabis as Medicines Act (2017) on domestic volumes of medical cannabis.
  • Context: Since the passage of the Cannabis as Medicines Act, patients have been faced with supply shortages due to import dependence.

Forecast of Cannabis Flower Supply Needs until 2024

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  • Method: Four scenarios are calculated, which account for the patients’ daily dosage and the growth rate of cannabis prescriptions to forecast demand from 2018 to 2024.
  • Conclusion: Current legislation does not allow for the needs of cannabis flower patients to be met by domestic supply, a gap which will broaden over time.